Forecasting 2015 Housing Market in Ottawa
As we all know predictions are not easy, especially for the future, but we can certainly go through some stats to find out how the market has been doing in the near past, to figure out how this year might turn out for Ottawa.
Mortgage and interest rate cut
Let’s look at the mortgage picture first, the average five-year mortgage rate in Canada is at a record-low 4.79%, according to central-bank data (Source: Financial Post ). Lower rates can be obtained from banks and other private lenders, such as Mortgage Brokers Ottawa, the mortgage rate on their site states 2.89 for a 5 year fixed (26 Jan 2015).
On 21 Jan 2015, Bank of Canada has lowered its interest rate to 0.75, it dropped the lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point. What that means is the cut will result in lower interest rates for variable rate mortgages, lines of credit and other loans that float with prime rates. They have called that fixed rates would be lowered also, and Royal Bank offered a five-year fixed rate of 2.84% on Jan. 24. (Source: Financial Post)
Prices of Houses and Comparisons
If we compare 2013 to 2014 market prices, we see some increases.
|Month||Average Home Sale Price||Result|
|January 2014||$346,744||increase of 1.0% over January 2013|
|February 2014||$353,407||ncrease of 2.0% over February 2013|
|March 2014||$359,051||increase of 0.3% over March 2013|
|April 2014||$374,015||increase of 0.8% over April 2013|
|May 2014||$381,172||increase of 3.2% over May 2013|
Ottawa is a healthy market that prices don’t go up and down like they do in some other Canadian cities, where there could be a very large influx of price ups and downs such as in Alberta… Prices of houses are still slowly going up here in Ottawa, with some minor adjustments in various neighbourhoods. 2014 was a year that average days on the market for a property increased significantly from the previous years and that was certainly not usual. Properties considered as luxurious in remote areas and the ones far from Ottawa core got hit first when it came to price reductions, however many city properties still held their value and on average saw a price increase by around 1 % in 2014.
And last but not least, this chart is key for us to understand what the economy has been doing in the near past and what the expected figures are for the coming years.
|Total Employment (000s)||697.6||687.4||696.5||706.0||715.5|
|MLS® Res. Sales||17,184||16,539||16,472||16,750||17,400|
|MLS® Res. Avg. Price||327,656||334,320||339,785||344,000||350,000|
|Residential Permits (Units)||8,211||6,643||8,950||7,800||8,000|
Source (Ontario Chamber Commerce)
As we can see the prediction of 2015 would be business might proceed as usual, some adjustments are in effect but there are still increases in price for some areas in Ottawa. If you are planning for your new purchase or selling your existing house, or investment contact me and I will be able to provide you a FREE CMA (Comparative Market Analysis) report of your house value, or for the area you are looking for.
Here are some stats you can tweet:
- 70% of property owners go with fixed rate mortgages» tweet this «
- 25% of property owners go with variable rate mortgages» tweet this «
- 6% of property owners go with combined rate mortgages» tweet this «
Disclaimer: As this article has been published by the author, mortgage rates might have been changed again in the last couple of days, therefore it is recommended to talk to a mortgage broker about the latest rates and mortgage rules and regulations.
Author: Nilay Ertemur